Dept. of Health Research Govt. of India
World Health Organization
Name of the Project Modeling the impact of Newer Prevention Technologies for HIV control using Goals Model
Principal Investigator Dr. Sanjay Mehendale
Co-Principal Investigator(s) Dr. BN Murthy
Other Investigator(s) Dr. Tarun Bhatnagar
Collaboration / Participating Centers NIMS (ICMR), Delhi
Funding Agency / Sponsor IAVI-India
Budget -
Study Period Jan-Dec 2012
Objectives Modeling exercise using ‘Goals Model’ to assess the impact of new HIV prevention interventions in three high HIV prevalent States of India- Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

The following tools will be used for the exercise:

  • Spectrum Software (version 4.46) (
  • The Goals, HIV and AIM manuals
  • Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra State files, with certain datasets and variables

The input data required for the modelling exercise are classified as epidemiological, behavioural, interventions, demographic or costing data. The data will be obtained from national/state-specific reports such as the Demographic and Health survey (DHS), NFHS, HSS (using EPP), BSS, SAC/NACO Annual reports, IBBA reports and peer-reviewed journal articles closest to the period 1986-2011. In some cases estimates or expected data as computed by international agencies such as UNAIDS, UN statistics division, WHO and others may be used. We will calibrate the model to HIV prevalence data by risk group and validate it by comparing the estimated AIDS mortality, HIV prevalence and the number of people receiving ART with respective data.

Quarterly Reports (5-10 lines) Collation of data for the modeling exercise is ongoing.
Significant achievements -
Publications -